Analysis · 24 March 2026

Pipeline Conversion in a Disrupted Market

Investigating whether Gen H's pipeline conversion has genuinely improved since the Iran conflict began affecting swap rates in early March.

Verdict

Conversion is genuinely up — driven by higher-quality new DIPs, not legacy pipeline clearing.

The market is smaller (DIP volumes down 26%), but the borrowers arriving are far more serious. It's a flight-to-quality effect as competitors exit.
7-Day DIP→App Rate
25.4%
↑ from 21.7% in Feb
Remortgage 7d Conv
57.6%
↑ from 30.8% in Feb (+87%)
App Submissions / Day
9.0
↑ from 8.0 in Feb
App→UW (business days)
1.0
↓ from 1.5 in Feb (faster)

Weekly 7-Day Conversion Rate

The 7-day window controls for right-censoring — every DIP cohort has had at least 7 days. March is consistently at 25–28%, the strongest sustained run since Q4 2025.

The Remortgage Signal

Both purchase and remortgage conversion improved, but remortgage nearly doubled. Fewer remortgage DIPs are arriving — but those that do convert at extraordinary rates.

Key Finding
Context

Who Are the March Submissions?

60% of March submissions are from March DIPs (avg 2.9 days to submit). This is NOT legacy pipeline clearing — it's fresh, fast-converting demand.

February Submissions by DIP Vintage

March Submissions by DIP Vintage

Pipeline Velocity

Processing times are falling. App-to-underwriting is down to 1.0 business day. App-to-offer is at 6.0 days (partially right-censored for March).

What's Happening

Primary Driver

Flight to Quality

As competitors pull products and exit, the borrowers who DO arrive are more serious and committed. Remortgage borrowers who had rate switches lined up elsewhere now need alternatives urgently. They DIP, they convert, they submit — in 2.9 days on average.

Supporting Factor

Broker Urgency

Brokers are submitting faster across the board. The 7-day purchase conversion rate is at 22.8% (up from 17.8% in January). With swap rates volatile, there's an incentive to lock in before the next move.

Mild Mix Effect

Slightly Simpler Cases

Remortgage share of submissions is up to 15.7% (from 11.7%), and interest-only is declining (2.3% from 3.9%). The mix is getting slightly easier, but not enough to explain the conversion improvement alone.

Important context: DIP volumes are down 26% (445 in March vs 603 in February). The market is shrinking. Gen H is converting a larger share of a smaller addressable market. Watch whether volume recovers or this becomes the new normal.